Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
SC Preussen 06 Munster vs. Fortuna Cologne: O/U 1.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 27¢ · $70 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 67%
$70.31
$27.83
Research grade
AvoidOver at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $1.18 | $31.98 | +$30.8 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $31.29 | $30.88 | -$0.41 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Underavg 98¢ | $10 | $7.45 | -$2.55 | 71% 17700-7191 (24891) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.