Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will TSV Havelse win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 1.0¢ · $32 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 67%
$31.51
-$424.79
16.3¢ → 1¢
-94% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 13.4¢ | $309.41 | $23.12 | -$286.29 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 30¢ | $145.14 | $4.84 | -$140.3 | 50% 7761-7812 (15573) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1 | $3.55 | +$1.8 | 55% 4845-4030 (8875) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.