Will 1. FC Saarbrucken win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 84¢ · $145 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$145.05
$83.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 40¢ | $48.96 | $128.52 | +$79.56 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 43.5¢ | $4.35 | $8.4 | +$4.05 | 55% 4845-4030 (8875) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $5.4 | $5.4 | +$0 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $2.73 | $2.73 | +$0 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.