Will VfL Osnabrück win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 100¢ · $603 held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$602.53

Combined PnL

$203.56

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 100¢

+80% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$519.92

Total Shares564

Combined PnL+$204.29

No3 traders

Total Value$5.1

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$0.73

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Yesavg 49¢	$172.64	$322.37	+$149.73	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 89.2¢	$92.96	$98.52	+$5.55	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 59.7¢	$325.84	$77.51	-$248.33	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
└ No leg	Noavg 59.7¢	$301.22	$42.86	-$258.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65¢	$24.62	$34.65	+$10.04
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$22	$45.75	+$23.75	64% 869-487 (1356)
LS LSB1<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$21.56	$44.84	+$23.28	77% 1604-470 (2074)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$6.47	$8.45	+$1.98	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$3.39	$2.99	-$0.41	55% 1299-1044 (2343)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 4.8¢	$1.34	$1.26	-$0.07	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$1.1	$0.85	-$0.25	58% 1463-1078 (2541)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$172.64

Value

$322.37

PnL

+$149.73

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.96

Value

$98.52

PnL

+$5.55

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$325.84

Value

$77.51

PnL

-$248.33

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Both legs:

No$301.2259.7¢-$258.36

Yes$24.6265¢+$10.04

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$45.75

PnL

+$23.75

Record

64%

869-487 (1356)

LSB1<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.56

Value

$44.84

PnL

+$23.28

Record

77%

1604-470 (2074)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.47

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$1.98

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$2.99

PnL

-$0.41

Record

55%

1299-1044 (2343)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.