VfL Osnabrück vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$9.9K
-$636.12
84.3¢ → 100¢
+19% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72 | Underavg 85.1¢ | $8.2K | $8.0K | -$207.48 | 72% 1831-717 (2548) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 75.9¢ | $808.73 | $927.98 | +$119.25 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 28.6¢ | $1.4K | $837.43 | -$563.49 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.9¢ | $21.59 | $37.19 | +$15.6 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $24.99 | $24.99 | -$0 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
Invested
$8,241.84
Value
$8.0K
PnL
-$207.48
Record
72%
1831-717 (2548)
Invested
$808.73
Value
$927.98
PnL
+$119.25
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,400.92
Value
$837.43
PnL
-$563.49
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$21.59
Value
$37.19
PnL
+$15.6
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
Invested
$24.99
Value
$24.99
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.