VfL Osnabrück vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 63%
$1.4K
$86.26
62.6¢ → 100¢
+60% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 25.7¢ | $409.28 | $667.01 | +$257.73 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 82¢ | $481.38 | $449.13 | -$32.24 | 50% 8804-8737 (17541) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 55.4¢ | $170.98 | $86.37 | -$84.61 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
FO foooool | Overavg 37¢ | $110 | $83.24 | -$26.76 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $37.31 | $44.31 | +$7 | 65% 12547-6671 (19218) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $69.62 | $33.04 | -$36.58 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $17.03 | $19.46 | +$2.43 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 35.8¢ | $3.05 | $2.34 | -$0.71 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$409.28
Value
$667.01
PnL
+$257.73
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Invested
$481.38
Value
$449.13
PnL
-$32.24
Record
50%
8804-8737 (17541)
VeryLucky888Invested
$170.98
Value
$86.37
PnL
-$84.61
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$110
Value
$83.24
PnL
-$26.76
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
Invested
$37.31
Value
$44.31
PnL
+$7
Record
65%
12547-6671 (19218)
Invested
$69.62
Value
$33.04
PnL
-$36.58
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$17.03
Value
$19.46
PnL
+$2.43
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.05
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$0.71
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.