VfL Osnabrück vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$497.73
78.7¢ → 59¢
-25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 77¢ | $1.8K | $1.4K | -$425.61 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 61.7¢ | $149.69 | $161.5 | +$11.81 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 61.7¢ | $99.69 | $95.37 | -$4.32 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 31¢ | $50 | $66.13 | +$16.13 | |
RO Rocko33 | Overavg 96.9¢ | $207.05 | $126.11 | -$80.94 | 64% 869-487 (1356) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $42.03 | $50.86 | +$8.82 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
RN1Invested
$1,843.06
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$425.61
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Invested
$149.69
Value
$161.5
PnL
+$11.81
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
Both legs:
Invested
$207.05
Value
$126.11
PnL
-$80.94
Record
64%
869-487 (1356)
Invested
$42.03
Value
$50.86
PnL
+$8.82
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.