Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$190.51

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,533

Combined PnL+$716.14

No2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,584

Combined PnL-$525.63

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$976.67	$1.7K	+$690.4	51% 189-185 (374)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 71¢	$1.1K	$752.28	-$305.38	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 70.6¢	$772.72	$552.47	-$220.25	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$48.07	$74.44	+$26.37	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.3¢	$12.72	$4.06	-$0.64	58% 31395-22700 (54095)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$976.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$690.4

Record

51%

189-185 (374)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,057.66

Value

$752.28

PnL

-$305.38

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$772.72

Value

$552.47

PnL

-$220.25

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.07

Value

$74.44

PnL

+$26.37

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.72

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$0.64

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.