Will VfL Osnabrück vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth end in a draw?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $817 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$816.54
$70.25
87.4¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 89.9¢ | $210.63 | $232.26 | +$21.63 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
LI Lilybaeum | Noavg 94.1¢ | $208.57 | $208.82 | +$0.25 | 65% 12547-6671 (19218) |
SP spyGoodLuck77 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $151.38 | $172.87 | +$20.55 | 63% 1393-822 (2215) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $81.17 | $79.42 | -$1.75 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $35.89 | $53.04 | +$17.15 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $42.48 | $52.37 | +$9.89 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.23 | $17.31 | +$3.08 | 54% 13813-11594 (25407) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1 | $0.45 | -$0.55 | 58% 16134-11777 (27911) |
Invested
$210.63
Value
$232.26
PnL
+$21.63
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Invested
$208.57
Value
$208.82
PnL
+$0.25
Record
65%
12547-6671 (19218)
Invested
$151.38
Value
$172.87
PnL
+$20.55
Record
63%
1393-822 (2215)
Invested
$81.17
Value
$79.42
PnL
-$1.75
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
RN1<$100Invested
$35.89
Value
$53.04
PnL
+$17.15
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Invested
$42.48
Value
$52.37
PnL
+$9.89
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
Invested
$14.23
Value
$17.31
PnL
+$3.08
Record
54%
13813-11594 (25407)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.55
Record
58%
16134-11777 (27911)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.