Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Holstein Kiel vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 50%
2 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$10.43
61.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$376.8 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 39¢ | $564.72 | $933.96 | +$369.24 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 35¢ | $529.2 | $536.76 | +$7.56 | |
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR | Underavg 65¢ | $989.3 | $981.69 | -$7.61 | 72% 1831-717 (2548) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $172.93 | $123.33 | -$49.6 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 60.8¢ | $55.82 | $61.97 | +$6.15 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 62¢ | $117.11 | $61.36 | -$55.75 | |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 39.4¢ | $92.1 | $86.44 | -$5.66 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $46.57 | $57.38 | +$10.8 | 65% 12547-6671 (19218) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $17.98 | $10.02 | -$7.96 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,093.92
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$376.8
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Both legs:
Invested
$989.3
Value
$981.69
PnL
-$7.61
Record
72%
1831-717 (2548)
Invested
$172.93
Value
$123.33
PnL
-$49.6
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.1
Value
$86.44
PnL
-$5.66
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
Invested
$46.57
Value
$57.38
PnL
+$10.8
Record
65%
12547-6671 (19218)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.98
Value
$10.02
PnL
-$7.96
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.