Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 66¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes66¢No34¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$536.29

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 65.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$999.9

Total Shares2,409

Combined PnL-$603.01

No4 traders

Total Value$216.93

Total Shares371

Combined PnL+$66.72

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 62.9¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$407.25	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.9¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$596.25
└ No leg	Noavg 39.8¢	$400.68	$589.68	+$189
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 66.8¢	$1.6K	$988.72	-$603.31	63% 1388-822 (2210)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 36.9¢	$419.02	$559.5	+$140.48	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
└ No leg	Noavg 36.9¢	$250.46	$396.82	+$146.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$168.56	$162.68	-$5.88
RN1CTR	Noavg 37¢	$93.8	$148.33	+$54.53	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 57¢	$137.23	$110.48	-$26.75	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$63.13	$65.63	+$2.5
└ No leg	Noavg 57¢	$74.1	$44.85	-$29.25
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$60.19	$37.89	+$1.4	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$10.8	$17.55	+$6.75	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 40.5¢	$9.12	$13.16	+$4.04	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$8.78	$9.11	+$0.33	53% 13577-12018 (25595)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.07	-$0.03	55% 4838-4027 (8865)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,152.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$407.25

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

Both legs:

Yes$1,751.6362.9¢-$596.25

No$400.6839.8¢+$189

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$1,592.03

Value

$988.72

PnL

-$603.31

Record

63%

1388-822 (2210)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$419.02

Value

$559.5

PnL

+$140.48

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

Both legs:

No$250.4636.9¢+$146.36

Yes$168.5643¢-$5.88

RN1CTR

Invested

$93.8

Value

$148.33

PnL

+$54.53

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$137.23

Value

$110.48

PnL

-$26.75

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

Both legs:

Yes$63.1363¢+$2.5

No$74.157¢-$29.25

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$60.19

Value

$37.89

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$17.55

PnL

+$6.75

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$9.12

Value

$13.16

PnL

+$4.04

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.78

Value

$9.11

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

13577-12018 (25595)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.