Holstein Kiel vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 78¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
2
Under 100%
$9.2K
$2.5K
71.7¢ → 78¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72 | Underavg 72.6¢ | $4.1K | $6.3K | +$2.2K | 72% 1831-717 (2548) |
 RN1 | Underavg 69.8¢ | $2.7K | $3.0K | +$313.6 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.