Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$75.61

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,782

Combined PnL+$76.77

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.2

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$1.16

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 86¢	$899.64	$880.81	+$4.73	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 89.5¢	$476.05	$489.26	+$13.21	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 67¢	$358.89	$258.74	+$59.13	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$259.35	$211.8	-$47.55	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
└ No leg	Noavg 95.8¢	$121.96	$120.3	-$1.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.3¢	$137.39	$91.5	-$45.89
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 90¢	$6.57	$6.28	-$0.29	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$5.76	$4.4	-$1.36	63% 1393-822 (2215)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$3.6	$3.8	+$0.2	51% 6539-6324 (12863)

oieshfn345

Invested

$899.64

Value

$880.81

PnL

+$4.73

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$476.05

Value

$489.26

PnL

+$13.21

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$358.89

Value

$258.74

PnL

+$59.13

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$259.35

Value

$211.8

PnL

-$47.55

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Both legs:

No$121.9695.8¢-$1.66

Yes$137.398.3¢-$45.89

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$6.57

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$0.29

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.76

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$1.36

Record

63%

1393-822 (2215)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.