Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Holstein Kiel vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 3.0¢ · $82 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$81.67
-$45.54
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345CTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $307.38 | $70.32 | -$45.54 | 57% 1457-1081 (2538) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | +$0 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.36 | $1.36 | +$0 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.