Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$290.73

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 98.9¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,061

Combined PnL+$178.55

Over3 traders

Total Value$489.06

Total Shares2,574

Combined PnL+$112.18

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 87.3¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$177.28	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
RN1CTR	Overavg 20¢	$305.69	$290.79	-$14.9	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 6¢	$58.32	$184.68	+$126.36	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 79¢	$70.31	$71.2	+$0.89	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 80¢	$30.68	$31.06	+$0.38	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$14.31	$13.59	+$0.72	58% 1463-1078 (2541)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,688.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$177.28

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$305.69

Value

$290.79

PnL

-$14.9

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$58.32

Value

$184.68

PnL

+$126.36

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$70.31

Value

$71.2

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$30.68

Value

$31.06

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.31

Value

$13.59

PnL

+$0.72

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.