Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$610.84

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 98.5¢

+44% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,355

Combined PnL+$611.71

Over2 traders

Total Value$168.25

Total Shares421

Combined PnL-$0.86

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 72.1¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$349.66	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 61.9¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$262.05	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 40¢	$166.67	$166.67	+$0	50% 7759-7812 (15571)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$82.28	$68.46	-$13.82	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$43.68	$37.98	-$5.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 76¢	$38.6	$30.47	-$8.13
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$12.9	$1.58	-$0.86	58% 31660-22917 (54577)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,535.21

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$349.66

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,038.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$262.05

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$166.67

Value

$166.67

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7759-7812 (15571)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$82.28

Value

$68.46

PnL

-$13.82

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

Both legs:

Invested

$12.9

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$0.86

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.