Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 91¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$248.17

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 90.5¢

+25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,350

Combined PnL+$99.1

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares13,135

Combined PnL-$347.27

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 68.1¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$108.21	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
FO forrestgumper	Underavg 89.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$11.76	48% 544-587 (1131)
RN1CTR	Overavg 24.4¢	$862.01	$911.77	+$49.76	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
SP spendingmoneyCTR	Overavg 9¢	$620.97	$586.47	-$34.5	55% 729-598 (1327)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 27¢	$910.14	$572.74	-$337.4	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Overavg 31.3¢	$284.66	$224.08	-$60.58	65% 12547-6671 (19218)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.7¢	$67.42	$127.01	+$59.58
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.3¢	$217.24	$97.08	-$120.17
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 22.3¢	$174.18	$158.76	-$21	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 38¢	$94.81	$75.02	-$16.79	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 38¢	$52.62	$47.43	-$5.19	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$27.43	$23.32	-$4.11	59% 13895-9640 (23535)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 74.6¢	$11.93	$13.04	+$1.11	58% 1463-1078 (2541)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,650.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$108.21

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

forrestgumper

Under

Invested

$1,035.78

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.76

Record

48%

544-587 (1131)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$862.01

Value

$911.77

PnL

+$49.76

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

spendingmoneyCTR

Over

Invested

$620.97

Value

$586.47

PnL

-$34.5

Record

55%

729-598 (1327)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$910.14

Value

$572.74

PnL

-$337.4

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Over

Invested

$284.66

Value

$224.08

PnL

-$60.58

Record

65%

12547-6671 (19218)

Both legs:

Under$67.4245.7¢+$59.58

Over$217.2431.3¢-$120.17

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$174.18

Value

$158.76

PnL

-$21

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$94.81

Value

$75.02

PnL

-$16.79

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$52.62

Value

$47.43

PnL

-$5.19

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.43

Value

$23.32

PnL

-$4.11

Record

59%

13895-9640 (23535)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$11.93

Value

$13.04

PnL

+$1.11

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.