Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (77%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 23¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$21.2K
$12.2K
Research grade
AvoidOver at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chongchong37CTR | Overavg 39¢ | $7.8K | $19.8K | +$12.0K | 49% 67-71 (138) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 61.1¢ | $600.9 | $761.77 | +$160.87 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
MA maxiplayer | Underavg 69¢ | $502.99 | $347.31 | +$58.32 | 77% 574-175 (749) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 53.4¢ | $160.11 | $298.29 | +$138.18 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.4¢ | $121.71 | $225.63 | +$103.92 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 40.7¢ | $38.39 | $72.66 | +$34.26 |
Invested
$7,799.99
Value
$19.8K
PnL
+$12.0K
Record
49%
67-71 (138)
HRTradingInvested
$600.9
Value
$761.77
PnL
+$160.87
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
Invested
$502.99
Value
$347.31
PnL
+$58.32
Record
77%
574-175 (749)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$160.11
Value
$298.29
PnL
+$138.18
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.