Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 88¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$831.96

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 87.5¢

+34% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares11,176

Combined PnL-$131.53

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares7,677

Combined PnL-$700.42

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL Bloodygoodrep1	Noavg 57¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$33.69	48% 37-40 (77)
RN1	Noavg 87¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$11.73	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 87¢	$1.1K	$882.02	-$231.89	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 41.7¢	$810.64	$817.32	+$6.68	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
oieshfn345	Noavg 67.9¢	$656.11	$707.86	+$51.75	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 29.7¢	$1.2K	$504.16	-$692.83	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
TI timezonewarrior	Noavg 58¢	$484.31	$484.31	-$0	44% 94-120 (214)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 42.8¢	$469.49	$461.22	-$8.27	53% 13577-12018 (25595)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$357.18	$252	-$6	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 86.7¢	$217.8	$219.69	+$1.89	65% 12546-6670 (19216)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$220.4	$216.1	-$4.3	50% 7758-7812 (15570)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$412.8	$129.6	-$4.8
└ No leg	Noavg 86¢	$86	$86.5	+$0.5
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 57¢	$74.1	$75.4	+$1.3	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$46.73	$46.8	+$0.07	54% 13809-11592 (25401)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$27.09	$26.46	-$0.63
└ No leg	Noavg 56¢	$19.64	$20.34	+$0.7

Bloodygoodrep1

Invested

$3,838.83

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$33.69

Record

48%

37-40 (77)

RN1

Invested

$1,461.24

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$11.73

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,113.91

Value

$882.02

PnL

-$231.89

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$810.64

Value

$817.32

PnL

+$6.68

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

oieshfn345

Invested

$656.11

Value

$707.86

PnL

+$51.75

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,196.99

Value

$504.16

PnL

-$692.83

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

timezonewarrior

Invested

$484.31

Value

$484.31

PnL

-$0

Record

44%

94-120 (214)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$469.49

Value

$461.22

PnL

-$8.27

Record

53%

13577-12018 (25595)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$357.18

Value

$252

PnL

-$6

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$217.8

Value

$219.69

PnL

+$1.89

Record

65%

12546-6670 (19216)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$220.4

Value

$216.1

PnL

-$4.3

Record

50%

7758-7812 (15570)

Both legs:

Yes$412.843¢-$4.8

No$8686¢+$0.5

foooool<$100

Invested

$74.1

Value

$75.4

PnL

+$1.3

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.73

Value

$46.8

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

13809-11592 (25401)

Both legs:

Yes$27.0943¢-$0.63

No$19.6456¢+$0.7

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.