Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$242.1

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 99.5¢

+43% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,271

Combined PnL+$240.74

No2 traders

Total Value$37.39

Total Shares73

Combined PnL+$1.37

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 66.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$75.16	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
AR ARocky33	Yesavg 95¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$51.38	76% 3206-1028 (4234)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 51.1¢	$869.8	$1.1K	+$223.1	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 30.1¢	$1.4K	$955.3	-$447.31	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
└ No leg	Noavg 30.1¢	$1.1K	$623.3	-$479.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75¢	$300	$332	+$32
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 66.1¢	$423.19	$464.16	+$40.96	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
FO foooool	Yesavg 68¢	$106.07	$106.85	+$0.78	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$35.99	$37.36	+$1.37	65% 12547-6671 (19218)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 76.2¢	$34.77	$32.64	-$2.13	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$5.3	$7.7	+$2.4	55% 4844-4028 (8872)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$3.35	$2.75	-$0.6	58% 16134-11777 (27911)
Junior112CTR<$100	Noavg 0.1¢	$0	$0.02	+$0	42% 531-744 (1275)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$2,235.27

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$75.16

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

ARocky33

Yes

Invested

$1,075.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$51.38

Record

76%

3206-1028 (4234)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$869.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$223.1

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,402.61

Value

$955.3

PnL

-$447.31

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Both legs:

No$1,102.6130.1¢-$479.31

Yes$30075¢+$32

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$423.19

Value

$464.16

PnL

+$40.96

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$106.07

Value

$106.85

PnL

+$0.78

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$35.99

Value

$37.36

PnL

+$1.37

Record

65%

12547-6671 (19218)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.77

Value

$32.64

PnL

-$2.13

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.3

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$2.4

Record

55%

4844-4028 (8872)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

16134-11777 (27911)

Junior112CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

531-744 (1275)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.