BC Zenit vs. Enisey Krasnoyarsk
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold BC Zenit (67%) · BC Zenit at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
BC Zenit
6
BC Zenit 67%
$1.2K
$58.89
73.4¢ → 100¢
+36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidBC Zenit at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 6.5¢ | $71.16 | $549.13 | +$477.97 | 50% 9397-9321 (18718) |
OM omnibus-076daa | BC Zenitavg 87.5¢ | $834.26 | $348.03 | -$486.23 | 50% 17590-17918 (35508) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | BC Zenitavg 16.7¢ | $40.25 | $120.15 | +$79.9 | 55% 1593-1313 (2906) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | BC Zenitavg 70.6¢ | $110.67 | $107.68 | -$2.99 | 60% 28339-19173 (47512) |
 HRTrading<$100 | BC Zenitavg 87.3¢ | $46.62 | $48.58 | +$1.95 | 55% 2167-1782 (3949) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 43.2¢ | $42.21 | $30.5 | -$11.72 | 61% 8673-5619 (14292) |
Invested
$71.16
Value
$549.13
PnL
+$477.97
Record
50%
9397-9321 (18718)
Invested
$834.26
Value
$348.03
PnL
-$486.23
Record
50%
17590-17918 (35508)
Invested
$40.25
Value
$120.15
PnL
+$79.9
Record
55%
1593-1313 (2906)
Invested
$110.67
Value
$107.68
PnL
-$2.99
Record
60%
28339-19173 (47512)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$46.62
Value
$48.58
PnL
+$1.95
Record
55%
2167-1782 (3949)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$42.21
Value
$30.5
PnL
-$11.72
Record
61%
8673-5619 (14292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.