Olimpia Milano vs. Virtus Bologna
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Olimpia Milano (80%) · Olimpia Milano at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Olimpia Milano
5
Olimpia Milano 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$55.48
68.7¢ → 90¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOlimpia Milano at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Olimpia Milanoavg 71.1¢ | $1.9K | $1.7K | -$210.5 | 47% 322-370 (692) |
TO torta.techCTR | Virtus Bolognaavg 29¢ | $743.44 | $975.65 | +$232.2 | 75% 6123-2031 (8154) |
LS LSS1 | Olimpia Milanoavg 60.1¢ | $410.43 | $423.25 | +$12.81 | 71% 1285-513 (1798) |
SN SnakeBall | Olimpia Milanoavg 73.5¢ | $93.77 | $114.8 | +$21.02 | 50% 8820-8762 (17582) |
MI mishipolisARB<$100 | Olimpia Milanoavg 57¢ | $52.18 | $57.03 | +$4.85 | 47% 2697-3064 (5761) |
| └ Olimpia Milano leg | Olimpia Milanoavg 57¢ | $28.5 | $31 | +$2.5 | |
| └ Virtus Bologna leg | Virtus Bolognaavg 34.6¢ | $23.68 | $26.03 | +$2.35 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Olimpia Milanoavg 62.1¢ | $11.36 | $11.3 | -$0.06 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
Invested
$1,927.6
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$210.5
Record
47%
322-370 (692)
Invested
$743.44
Value
$975.65
PnL
+$232.2
Record
75%
6123-2031 (8154)
Invested
$410.43
Value
$423.25
PnL
+$12.81
Record
71%
1285-513 (1798)
Invested
$93.77
Value
$114.8
PnL
+$21.02
Record
50%
8820-8762 (17582)
Invested
$52.18
Value
$57.03
PnL
+$4.85
Record
47%
2697-3064 (5761)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.36
Value
$11.3
PnL
-$0.06
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.