Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Napoli Basket, while the market favors Derthona Basket (50%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Napoli Basket (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Napoli Basket (60%) · Napoli Basket at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Napoli Basket
5
Napoli Basket 60%
$1.3K
$105.39
91.8¢ → 50¢
-46% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNapoli Basket at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Derthona Basket 50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Napoli Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR | Napoli Basketavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$9.9 | 95% 13999-802 (14801) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Napoli Basketavg 49¢ | $91.45 | $185.61 | +$94.16 | 47% 322-369 (691) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100 | Derthona Basketavg 1¢ | $14.4 | $14.4 | +$0 | 41% 1610-2270 (3880) |
LO looppauCTR<$100 | Napoli Basketavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $2.5 | -$2.5 | 99% 6809-37 (6846) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Derthona Basketavg 52¢ | $13.26 | $0.26 | +$3.83 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$1,089
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$9.9
Record
95%
13999-802 (14801)
Invested
$91.45
Value
$185.61
PnL
+$94.16
Record
47%
322-369 (691)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
1610-2270 (3880)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
99%
6809-37 (6846)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.26
Value
$0.26
PnL
+$3.83
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.