Derthona Basket vs. Napoli Basket
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Derthona Basket (75%) · Derthona Basket at 65¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Derthona Basket
4
Derthona Basket 75%
2 arb excluded
$4.7K
$141.09
74.2¢ → 64.5¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidDerthona Basket at 65%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Napoli Basketavg 24.5¢ | $1.6K | $2.6K | +$989.96 | 47% 320-367 (687) |
TO torta.tech | Derthona Basketavg 75.4¢ | $2.7K | $1.5K | -$798.4 | 75% 6114-2028 (8142) |
LS LSS1 | Derthona Basketavg 68.9¢ | $431.43 | $381.81 | -$49.62 | 71% 1281-512 (1793) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Derthona Basketavg 67.4¢ | $161.11 | $146.75 | -$14.37 | 50% 8797-8727 (17524) |
| └ Derthona Basket leg | Derthona Basketavg 67.4¢ | $107.79 | $103.08 | -$4.71 | |
| └ Napoli Basket leg | Napoli Basketavg 43.3¢ | $53.32 | $43.67 | -$9.65 | |
MI mishipolisARB<$100 | Napoli Basketavg 44.5¢ | $80.16 | $70.45 | -$9.72 | 47% 2670-3035 (5705) |
| └ Napoli Basket leg | Napoli Basketavg 44.5¢ | $43.16 | $42.2 | -$0.97 | |
| └ Derthona Basket leg | Derthona Basketavg 74¢ | $37 | $28.25 | -$8.75 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Derthona Basketavg 71¢ | $6.39 | $5.55 | -$0.84 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
Invested
$1,585.14
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$989.96
Record
47%
320-367 (687)
Invested
$2,714.98
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$798.4
Record
75%
6114-2028 (8142)
Invested
$431.43
Value
$381.81
PnL
-$49.62
Record
71%
1281-512 (1793)
Invested
$161.11
Value
$146.75
PnL
-$14.37
Record
50%
8797-8727 (17524)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.16
Value
$70.45
PnL
-$9.72
Record
47%
2670-3035 (5705)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.39
Value
$5.55
PnL
-$0.84
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.