Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Melbourne United vs. Sydney Kings: O/U 193.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 30¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$4.5K
$1.4K
45¢ → 30¢
-33% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $999.99 | $1.7K | +$666.66 | 59% 3045-2103 (5148) |
NO NotradecopyCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $999.99 | $1.7K | +$666.66 | 60% 2979-1997 (4976) |
TI tin54321 | Underavg 56¢ | $990 | $990 | +$0 | 64% 43-24 (67) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Overavg 44.1¢ | $110.58 | $188.24 | +$77.65 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 61.4¢ | $10.09 | $12.33 | +$2.24 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.8 | -$0.35 | 50% 607-603 (1210) |
Invested
$999.99
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$666.66
Record
59%
3045-2103 (5148)
Invested
$999.99
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$666.66
Record
60%
2979-1997 (4976)
Invested
$990
Value
$990
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
43-24 (67)
Invested
$110.58
Value
$188.24
PnL
+$77.65
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.09
Value
$12.33
PnL
+$2.24
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
607-603 (1210)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.