Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Melbourne United, while the market favors Sydney Kings (75%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Sydney Kings (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne United (60%) · Melbourne United at 26¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Melbourne United
5
Melbourne United 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$6.03
48.2¢ → 25.5¢
-47% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMelbourne United at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Sydney Kings 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Melbourne Unitedavg 51¢ | $664.01 | $722.6 | +$58.59 | 46% 301-348 (649) |
QU QuentinChenCTR | Melbourne Unitedavg 45.5¢ | $613.22 | $613.15 | -$0.07 | 45% 213-264 (477) |
TO torta.tech | Sydney Kingsavg 49¢ | $598.8 | $543.81 | -$54.99 | 75% 6002-2011 (8013) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Melbourne Unitedavg 43.1¢ | $100.8 | $103.99 | +$3.2 | 54% 13658-11474 (25132) |
| └ Melbourne United leg | Melbourne Unitedavg 43.1¢ | $63.42 | $66.93 | +$3.52 | |
| └ Sydney Kings leg | Sydney Kingsavg 55¢ | $37.38 | $37.06 | -$0.32 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Sydney Kingsavg 54.5¢ | $321.37 | $92.29 | +$1.96 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Melbourne Unitedavg 43¢ | $3.56 | $4.11 | +$0.55 | 58% 1321-965 (2286) |
Invested
$664.01
Value
$722.6
PnL
+$58.59
Record
46%
301-348 (649)
Invested
$613.22
Value
$613.15
PnL
-$0.07
Record
45%
213-264 (477)
Invested
$598.8
Value
$543.81
PnL
-$54.99
Record
75%
6002-2011 (8013)
Invested
$100.8
Value
$103.99
PnL
+$3.2
Record
54%
13658-11474 (25132)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$321.37
Value
$92.29
PnL
+$1.96
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.56
Value
$4.11
PnL
+$0.55
Record
58%
1321-965 (2286)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.