Valencia vs. Kosner Baskonia

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Valencia (67%) · Valencia at 100¢ · $419 held · ends Nov 1

Valencia>99¢Kosner Baskonia<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Valencia

Consensus Traders

Valencia 67%

Total Value

$418.75

Combined PnL

-$4.08

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidValencia at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valencia

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Valencia100%

Kosner Baskonia0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Valencia4 traders

Total Value$375.94

Total Shares416

Combined PnL+$6.61

Kosner Baskonia2 traders

Total Value$42.79

Total Shares413

Combined PnL-$10.69

Valencia — 67%Kosner Baskonia — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Valenciaavg 99.9¢	$182.6	$182.69	+$0.09	99% 6841-38 (6879)
HRTrading<$100	Valenciaavg 74.2¢	$89.08	$84.8	-$4.28	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
MI mishipolis<$100	Valenciaavg 79.7¢	$84.63	$83.44	+$10.55	47% 2714-3081 (5795)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kosner Baskoniaavg 10¢	$417.93	$42.09	-$11.19	46% 325-374 (699)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Valenciaavg 95¢	$24.75	$25	+$0.25	47% 3605-4050 (7655)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Kosner Baskoniaavg 2¢	$0.2	$0.7	+$0.5	63% 22715-13447 (36162)

looppau

Valencia

Invested

$182.6

Value

$182.69

PnL

+$0.09

Record

99%

6841-38 (6879)

HRTrading<$100

Valencia

Invested

$89.08

Value

$84.8

PnL

-$4.28

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

mishipolis<$100

Valencia

Invested

$84.63

Value

$83.44

PnL

+$10.55

Record

47%

2714-3081 (5795)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$417.93

Value

$42.09

PnL

-$11.19

Record

46%

325-374 (699)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Valencia

Invested

$24.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

3605-4050 (7655)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0.5

Record

63%

22715-13447 (36162)

Research grade

AvoidValencia at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Valencia

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valencia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.