CB Breogan Lugo vs. Unicaja
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Unicaja (71%) · Unicaja at 87¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Unicaja
7
Unicaja 71%
$3.1K
$224.72
63.3¢ → 86.5¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnicaja at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Unicajaavg 65.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$172.17 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
TO torta.techCTR | CB Breogan Lugoavg 38¢ | $414.58 | $501.86 | +$87.28 | 75% 6144-2035 (8179) |
LS LSS1 | Unicajaavg 59¢ | $408.28 | $373.68 | -$34.6 | 71% 1291-515 (1806) |
QU QuentinChen<$100 | Unicajaavg 54¢ | $90.03 | $96.7 | +$6.67 | 45% 221-271 (492) |
MI mishipolis<$100 | Unicajaavg 63¢ | $31.5 | $27 | -$4.5 | 47% 2714-3081 (5795) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | CB Breogan Lugoavg 26.4¢ | $8.96 | $6.62 | -$2.34 | 46% 325-374 (699) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Unicajaavg 78¢ | $1.17 | $1.22 | +$0.05 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
Invested
$1,888.33
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$172.17
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$414.58
Value
$501.86
PnL
+$87.28
Record
75%
6144-2035 (8179)
Invested
$408.28
Value
$373.68
PnL
-$34.6
Record
71%
1291-515 (1806)
Invested
$90.03
Value
$96.7
PnL
+$6.67
Record
45%
221-271 (492)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$27
PnL
-$4.5
Record
47%
2714-3081 (5795)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$6.62
PnL
-$2.34
Record
46%
325-374 (699)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.