Bilbao Basket vs. Basquet Club Andorra

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bilbao Basket (67%) · Bilbao Basket at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Bilbao Basket>99¢Basquet Club Andorra<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bilbao Basket

Consensus Traders

Bilbao Basket 67%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$835.05

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBilbao Basket at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilbao Basket

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bilbao Basket100%

Basquet Club Andorra0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilbao Basket4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,003

Combined PnL-$10.61

Basquet Club Andorra2 traders

Total Value$317.31

Total Shares3,194

Combined PnL-$824.44

Bilbao Basket — 67%Basquet Club Andorra — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Bilbao Basketavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 6809-37 (6846)
LS LSS1	Bilbao Basketavg 92¢	$408.48	$396.49	-$11.99	71% 1282-513 (1795)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Basquet Club Andorraavg 28.6¢	$3.3K	$315.29	-$801.9	47% 322-369 (691)
ZX zxc368<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 99.9¢	$45.85	$45.67	-$0.18	99% 9010-127 (9137)
HRTrading<$100	Bilbao Basketavg 86.9¢	$11.3	$11.61	+$0.31	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Basquet Club Andorraavg 24.3¢	$24.57	$2.02	-$22.55	66% 2852-1493 (4345)

looppau

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

6809-37 (6846)

LSS1

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$408.48

Value

$396.49

PnL

-$11.99

Record

71%

1282-513 (1795)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Basquet Club Andorra

Invested

$3,324.29

Value

$315.29

PnL

-$801.9

Record

47%

322-369 (691)

zxc368<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$45.85

Value

$45.67

PnL

-$0.18

Record

99%

9010-127 (9137)

HRTrading<$100

Bilbao Basket

Invested

$11.3

Value

$11.61

PnL

+$0.31

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Basquet Club Andorra

Invested

$24.57

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$22.55

Record

66%

2852-1493 (4345)

Research grade

AvoidBilbao Basket at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Bilbao Basket

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilbao Basket wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.