Kk Metalac vs. Kk Dynamic
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kk Metalac (75%) · Kk Metalac at 73¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Kk Metalac
4
Kk Metalac 75%
$60.34
-$7.4
Research grade
AvoidKk Metalac at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Kk Metalacavg 72.7¢ | $199.09 | $44.42 | -$7.39 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Kk Metalacavg 76¢ | $14.12 | $13.57 | -$0.56 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Kk Metalacavg 69.6¢ | $1.65 | $1.73 | +$0.23 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
CL claudesportsCTR<$100 | Kk Dynamicavg 13¢ | $0.3 | $0.62 | +$0.32 | 47% 260-288 (548) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$199.09
Value
$44.42
PnL
-$7.39
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$14.12
Value
$13.57
PnL
-$0.56
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$0.23
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.62
PnL
+$0.32
Record
47%
260-288 (548)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.