Seoul Knights vs. Sonic Boom
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Seoul Knights (33%) · Seoul Knights at 79¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Seoul Knights
3
Seoul Knights 33%
$262.71
-$40.91
Research grade
AvoidSeoul Knights at 79%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LS LSS1 | Seoul Knightsavg 70.1¢ | $408.67 | $204.27 | -$15.86 | 72% 1271-506 (1777) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Sonic Boomavg 29.9¢ | $82.29 | $57.7 | -$24.59 | 46% 301-348 (649) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Sonic Boomavg 34¢ | $1.19 | $0.74 | -$0.45 | 58% 1321-965 (2286) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.