Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold KCC Egis, while the market favors Seoul Knights (67%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Seoul Knights vs. KCC Egis
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold KCC Egis (50%) · KCC Egis at 34¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
KCC Egis
6
KCC Egis 50%
$8.1K
$2.3K
31¢ → 33.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidKCC Egis at 34%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Seoul Knights 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI viper0310CTR | KCC Egisavg 31¢ | $4.4K | $7.0K | +$2.7K | 54% 14-12 (26) |
UP UpTheBlues | Seoul Knightsavg 69¢ | $1.1K | $802.5 | -$304.95 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
 HRTrading | Seoul Knightsavg 69¢ | $276.69 | $200.5 | -$76.19 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | KCC Egisavg 32¢ | $18.56 | $29 | +$10.44 | 36% 13957-24692 (38649) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | KCC Egisavg 32¢ | $13.05 | $20.38 | +$7.34 | 50% 9389-9311 (18700) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Seoul Knightsavg 67.7¢ | $26.07 | $19.24 | -$6.83 | 50% 17388-17711 (35099) |
Invested
$4,350.06
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
54%
14-12 (26)
Invested
$1,107.45
Value
$802.5
PnL
-$304.95
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
HRTradingInvested
$276.69
Value
$200.5
PnL
-$76.19
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
Invested
$18.56
Value
$29
PnL
+$10.44
Record
36%
13957-24692 (38649)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$20.38
PnL
+$7.34
Record
50%
9389-9311 (18700)
Invested
$26.07
Value
$19.24
PnL
-$6.83
Record
50%
17388-17711 (35099)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.