Goyang vs. LG Sakers: O/U 170.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 56¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 100%
$3.9K
-$205.33
53.6¢ → 56¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LZ lzh1 | Underavg 54¢ | $5.0K | $2.5K | -$174.99 | 43% 438-589 (1027) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.9K | $952.83 | -$47.17 | 59% 3399-2381 (5780) |
NO Notradecopy | Underavg 53¢ | $445.95 | $462.78 | +$16.83 | 49% 3492-3599 (7091) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.