Goyang vs. LG Sakers
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold LG Sakers (80%) · LG Sakers at 93¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
LG Sakers
5
LG Sakers 80%
$8.2K
$157.63
64.6¢ → 93¢
+44% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidLG Sakers at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | LG Sakersavg 63.8¢ | $4.9K | $5.7K | +$860.13 | 48% 401-426 (827) |
TO torta.tech | LG Sakersavg 61.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | -$415.28 | 63% 7383-4336 (11719) |
BI BIAVN | LG Sakersavg 75¢ | $1.1K | $935.63 | -$209.43 | 50% 204-204 (408) |
LS LSS1 | LG Sakersavg 60.8¢ | $418.07 | $296.08 | -$108.49 | 72% 1425-561 (1986) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Goyangavg 25.4¢ | $26.29 | $56.98 | +$30.69 | 55% 2063-1679 (3742) |
Invested
$4,882.33
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$860.13
Record
48%
401-426 (827)
Invested
$1,558.75
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$415.28
Record
63%
7383-4336 (11719)
Invested
$1,145.06
Value
$935.63
PnL
-$209.43
Record
50%
204-204 (408)
Invested
$418.07
Value
$296.08
PnL
-$108.49
Record
72%
1425-561 (1986)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$26.29
Value
$56.98
PnL
+$30.69
Record
55%
2063-1679 (3742)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.