Daegu Pegasus vs. Seoul Thunders
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Seoul Thunders (60%) · Seoul Thunders at 59¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Seoul Thunders
5
Seoul Thunders 60%
$8.3K
-$471.91
59.9¢ → 58.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSeoul Thunders at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU lukibazdonauki754 | Seoul Thundersavg 60¢ | $8.3K | $7.9K | -$483.22 | 57% 349-260 (609) |
UP UpTheBlues | Seoul Thundersavg 57.1¢ | $259.03 | $258.56 | -$0.47 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Daegu Pegasusavg 42¢ | $87.33 | $89.41 | +$2.08 | 50% 155-157 (312) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Daegu Pegasusavg 38.1¢ | $76.16 | $85.87 | +$9.71 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Seoul Thundersavg 57¢ | $3.35 | $3.35 | -$0 | 50% 7629-7782 (15411) |
Invested
$8,286.94
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$483.22
Record
57%
349-260 (609)
Invested
$259.03
Value
$258.56
PnL
-$0.47
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$87.33
Value
$89.41
PnL
+$2.08
Record
50%
155-157 (312)
Invested
$76.16
Value
$85.87
PnL
+$9.71
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.35
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
7629-7782 (15411)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.