Yokohama B-Corsairs vs. Hiroshima Dragonflies
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Hiroshima Dragonflies (100%) · Hiroshima Dragonflies at 79¢ · $498 held · ends Nov 2
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Avoid
Hiroshima Dragonflies
2
Hiroshima Dragonflies 100%
$497.67
$65.25
79.2¢ → 79¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidHiroshima Dragonflies at 79%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LS LSS1 | Hiroshima Dragonfliesavg 79.2¢ | $353.42 | $418.67 | +$65.25 | 72% 1425-561 (1986) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Hiroshima Dragonfliesavg 79¢ | $79 | $79 | -$0 | 58% 37020-26943 (63963) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.