Tokyo Sunrockers vs. Diamond Dolphins

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Diamond Dolphins (60%) · Diamond Dolphins at 100¢ · $561 held · ends Nov 1

Tokyo Sunrockers<1¢Diamond Dolphins>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Diamond Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Diamond Dolphins 60%

Total Value

$560.83

Combined PnL

-$18.01

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidDiamond Dolphins at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Diamond Dolphins

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tokyo Sunrockers0%

Diamond Dolphins100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Diamond Dolphins3 traders

Total Value$503.35

Total Shares563

Combined PnL+$28.85

Tokyo Sunrockers2 traders

Total Value$57.47

Total Shares293

Combined PnL-$46.87

Diamond Dolphins — 60%Tokyo Sunrockers — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Diamond Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Diamond Dolphins) and the top 1000 (3 on Tokyo Sunrockers) disagree here.

sharpDiamond Dolphins 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTokyo Sunrockers 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedDiamond Dolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tokyo Sunrockers 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Diamond Dolphinsavg 68.6¢	$240.47	$291.08	+$50.6	58% 31536-22821 (54357)
LS LSS1	Diamond Dolphinsavg 79.3¢	$140.12	$109.95	+$12.06	71% 1278-512 (1790)
MI mishipolis	Diamond Dolphinsavg 68.2¢	$211.54	$102.32	-$33.81	47% 2666-3026 (5692)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 33¢	$94.05	$51.3	-$42.75	65% 2773-1479 (4252)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Tokyo Sunrockersavg 69.7¢	$10.29	$6.17	-$4.12	58% 1429-1045 (2474)

VeryLucky888

Diamond Dolphins

Invested

$240.47

Value

$291.08

PnL

+$50.6

Record

58%

31536-22821 (54357)

LSS1

Diamond Dolphins

Invested

$140.12

Value

$109.95

PnL

+$12.06

Record

71%

1278-512 (1790)

mishipolis

Diamond Dolphins

Invested

$211.54

Value

$102.32

PnL

-$33.81

Record

47%

2666-3026 (5692)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$94.05

Value

$51.3

PnL

-$42.75

Record

65%

2773-1479 (4252)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Tokyo Sunrockers

Invested

$10.29

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$4.12

Record

58%

1429-1045 (2474)

Research grade

AvoidDiamond Dolphins at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Diamond Dolphins

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Diamond Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Diamond Dolphins) and the top 1000 (3 on Tokyo Sunrockers) disagree here.

sharpDiamond Dolphins 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTokyo Sunrockers 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedDiamond Dolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tokyo Sunrockers 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Diamond Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.