Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Shimane Susanoo Magic, while the market favors Sendai 89ers (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Shimane Susanoo Magic vs. Sendai 89ers
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Shimane Susanoo Magic (57%) · Shimane Susanoo Magic at 0.1¢ · $231 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Shimane Susanoo Magic
7
Shimane Susanoo Magic 57%
$231.38
$88.17
34.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidShimane Susanoo Magic at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Sendai 89ers 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 35.9¢ | $65.79 | $108.15 | +$42.36 | 50% 3606-3566 (7172) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 29¢ | $29 | $85 | +$56 | 52% 5688-5312 (11000) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 29¢ | $7.04 | $14.32 | +$7.28 | 58% 7087-5118 (12205) |
LS LSS1CTR<$100 | Shimane Susanoo Magicavg 59¢ | $7.5 | $11.8 | +$4.3 | 72% 1440-567 (2007) |
LO looppau<$100 | Sendai 89ersavg 99.9¢ | $14.99 | $6.15 | -$8.84 | 99% 8965-41 (9006) |
MI mishipolis<$100 | Sendai 89ersavg 71¢ | $25.14 | $4.53 | -$13.32 | 50% 3908-3958 (7866) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Sendai 89ersavg 30¢ | $1.05 | $1.43 | +$0.38 | 55% 2150-1763 (3913) |
Invested
$65.79
Value
$108.15
PnL
+$42.36
Record
50%
3606-3566 (7172)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$29
Value
$85
PnL
+$56
Record
52%
5688-5312 (11000)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$14.32
PnL
+$7.28
Record
58%
7087-5118 (12205)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$11.8
PnL
+$4.3
Record
72%
1440-567 (2007)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$6.15
PnL
-$8.84
Record
99%
8965-41 (9006)
Invested
$25.14
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$13.32
Record
50%
3908-3958 (7866)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.43
PnL
+$0.38
Record
55%
2150-1763 (3913)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.