Saga Ballooners vs. Alvark Tokyo
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Alvark Tokyo (50%) · Alvark Tokyo at 98¢ · $7 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Alvark Tokyo
2
Alvark Tokyo 50%
$6.51
-$0.59
Research grade
AvoidAlvark Tokyo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GG GGLPL<$100 | Alvark Tokyoavg 94¢ | $5 | $4.94 | +$0.24 | 50% 645-640 (1285) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Saga Balloonersavg 1.9¢ | $1.55 | $1.57 | -$0.84 | 55% 2063-1679 (3742) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.