Nagasaki Velca vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Nagasaki Velca (75%) · Nagasaki Velca at 71¢ · $577 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Nagasaki Velca
4
Nagasaki Velca 75%
1 arb excluded
$577.28
-$30.76
49.2¢ → 70.5¢
+43% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNagasaki Velca at 71%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LS LSS1 | Nagasaki Velcaavg 53.5¢ | $411.01 | $314.73 | -$96.28 | 72% 1425-561 (1986) |
BA BayupatiARB<$100 | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 75.3¢ | $91.61 | $87.72 | -$13.91 | 51% 174-170 (344) |
| └ Ryukyu Golden Kings leg | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 75.3¢ | $81.82 | $64.1 | -$37.82 | |
| └ Nagasaki Velca leg | Nagasaki Velcaavg 17¢ | $9.79 | $23.62 | +$23.91 | |
 tradecraft<$100 | Nagasaki Velcaavg 21.5¢ | $24.05 | $82.17 | +$58.12 | 52% 5636-5262 (10898) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 22.8¢ | $23 | $59.51 | +$36.51 | 50% 3519-3537 (7056) |
MI mishipolis<$100 | Nagasaki Velcaavg 77¢ | $62.27 | $33.16 | -$29.11 | 49% 3395-3602 (6997) |
Invested
$411.01
Value
$314.73
PnL
-$96.28
Record
72%
1425-561 (1986)
Invested
$91.61
Value
$87.72
PnL
-$13.91
Record
51%
174-170 (344)
Both legs:
tradecraft<$100Invested
$24.05
Value
$82.17
PnL
+$58.12
Record
52%
5636-5262 (10898)
Invested
$23
Value
$59.51
PnL
+$36.51
Record
50%
3519-3537 (7056)
Invested
$62.27
Value
$33.16
PnL
-$29.11
Record
49%
3395-3602 (6997)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.