Kyoto Hannaryz vs. Akita Northern Happinets
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Kyoto Hannaryz (67%) · Kyoto Hannaryz at 58¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Kyoto Hannaryz
3
Kyoto Hannaryz 67%
1 arb excluded
$322.96
-$55.09
87¢ → 58¢
-33% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKyoto Hannaryz at 58%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LS LSS1 | Kyoto Hannaryzavg 86.9¢ | $279.92 | $186.76 | -$93.16 | 72% 1440-567 (2007) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Akita Northern Happinetsavg 23¢ | $45.31 | $82.74 | +$37.43 | 50% 3606-3566 (7172) |
MI mishipolisARB<$100 | Kyoto Hannaryzavg 60¢ | $37.12 | $49.78 | -$0.09 | 50% 3908-3958 (7866) |
| └ Kyoto Hannaryz leg | Kyoto Hannaryzavg 60¢ | $29.77 | $28.78 | +$11.66 | |
| └ Akita Northern Happinets leg | Akita Northern Happinetsavg 40¢ | $20 | $21 | -$11.75 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Kyoto Hannaryzavg 95¢ | $3.04 | $3.68 | +$0.64 | 55% 2150-1763 (3913) |
Invested
$279.92
Value
$186.76
PnL
-$93.16
Record
72%
1440-567 (2007)
Invested
$45.31
Value
$82.74
PnL
+$37.43
Record
50%
3606-3566 (7172)
Invested
$37.12
Value
$49.78
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
3908-3958 (7866)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.04
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0.64
Record
55%
2150-1763 (3913)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.