Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pau-Orthez, while the market favors Limoges (51%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pau-Orthez vs. Limoges
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pau-Orthez (33%) · Pau-Orthez at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Pau-Orthez
3
Pau-Orthez 33%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$42.02
Research grade
AvoidPau-Orthez at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Limoges 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Pau-Orthezavg 51.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$54.16 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Pau-Orthezavg 51.1¢ | $632.98 | $637.35 | +$4.37 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
| └ Pau-Orthez leg | Pau-Orthezavg 51.1¢ | $386.66 | $370.55 | -$16.11 | |
| └ Limoges leg | Limogesavg 47.1¢ | $246.31 | $266.79 | +$20.48 | |
NA NatoAlfista | Limogesavg 52.2¢ | $427.88 | $425.88 | -$2 | 66% 2856-1504 (4360) |
LS LSS1 | Limogesavg 49¢ | $346.43 | $360.57 | +$14.14 | 71% 1291-515 (1806) |
Invested
$1,207.13
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$54.16
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$632.98
Value
$637.35
PnL
+$4.37
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Both legs:
Invested
$427.88
Value
$425.88
PnL
-$2
Record
66%
2856-1504 (4360)
Invested
$346.43
Value
$360.57
PnL
+$14.14
Record
71%
1291-515 (1806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.