Xinjiang Flying Tigers vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Zhejiang Golden Bulls (100%) · Zhejiang Golden Bulls at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
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Avoid
Zhejiang Golden Bulls
3
Zhejiang Golden Bulls 100%
$1.4K
$14.94
71.1¢ → 72¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidZhejiang Golden Bulls at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 71.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$11.6 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 67¢ | $47.98 | $50.49 | +$2.51 | 52% 270-246 (516) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 66¢ | $12.22 | $13.33 | +$0.83 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.