Sichuan Blue Whales vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Zhejiang Golden Bulls (100%) · Zhejiang Golden Bulls at 70¢ · $316 held · ends Nov 1
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Avoid
Zhejiang Golden Bulls
3
Zhejiang Golden Bulls 100%
$315.67
$13.7
67.4¢ → 70¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidZhejiang Golden Bulls at 70%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bayupati | Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 66.2¢ | $256.49 | $279.03 | +$15.73 | 50% 159-157 (316) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 75¢ | $29.49 | $27.52 | -$1.77 | 70% 1548-673 (2221) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Zhejiang Golden Bullsavg 78¢ | $10.14 | $9.1 | -$0.26 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.