Sichuan Blue Whales vs. Nanjing Monkey King
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sichuan Blue Whales (40%) · Sichuan Blue Whales at 63¢ · $198 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Sichuan Blue Whales
5
Sichuan Blue Whales 40%
$197.66
-$7.55
65.5¢ → 63¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidSichuan Blue Whales at 63%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Sichuan Blue Whalesavg 65.4¢ | $133.32 | $101.95 | -$31.37 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 35¢ | $33.27 | $45.53 | +$12.26 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 34¢ | $26.47 | $38.93 | +$12.46 | 47% 2332-2597 (4929) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Sichuan Blue Whalesavg 67¢ | $10.05 | $7.5 | -$2.55 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Nanjing Monkey Kingavg 28¢ | $2.1 | $3.75 | +$1.65 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$133.32
Value
$101.95
PnL
-$31.37
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$33.27
Value
$45.53
PnL
+$12.26
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
Invested
$26.47
Value
$38.93
PnL
+$12.46
Record
47%
2332-2597 (4929)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$2.55
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$1.65
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.