Shenzhen Leopards vs. Beijing Royal Fighters
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Beijing Royal Fighters (100%) · Beijing Royal Fighters at 54¢ · $369 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Beijing Royal Fighters
5
Beijing Royal Fighters 100%
1 arb excluded
$369.3
-$15.51
60.2¢ → 53.5¢
-11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBeijing Royal Fighters at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Beijing Royal Fighters. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 56.5¢ | $133.06 | $134.22 | +$1.16 | 54% 13658-11474 (25132) |
| └ Beijing Royal Fighters leg | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 56.5¢ | $101.15 | $100.34 | -$0.81 | |
| └ Shenzhen Leopards leg | Shenzhen Leopardsavg 41.4¢ | $31.91 | $33.88 | +$1.97 | |
JA Jameslyy | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 63¢ | $126 | $112 | -$14 | 66% 658-335 (993) |
 VeryLucky888 | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 58.9¢ | $227.62 | $51.2 | -$0.13 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 57¢ | $50.16 | $48.4 | -$1.76 | 68% 30725-14776 (45501) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 56¢ | $16.48 | $16.48 | +$0 | 50% 7622-7775 (15397) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Beijing Royal Fightersavg 53¢ | $6.63 | $7.01 | +$0.38 | 50% 603-601 (1204) |
Invested
$133.06
Value
$134.22
PnL
+$1.16
Record
54%
13658-11474 (25132)
Both legs:
Invested
$126
Value
$112
PnL
-$14
Record
66%
658-335 (993)
VeryLucky888Invested
$227.62
Value
$51.2
PnL
-$0.13
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
Invested
$50.16
Value
$48.4
PnL
-$1.76
Record
68%
30725-14776 (45501)
Invested
$16.48
Value
$16.48
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7622-7775 (15397)
Invested
$6.63
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$0.38
Record
50%
603-601 (1204)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.