Shanghai Sharks vs. Guangdong Southern Tigers
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Shanghai Sharks (83%) · Shanghai Sharks at 88¢ · $544 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Shanghai Sharks
6
Shanghai Sharks 83%
$543.96
$10.47
86.9¢ → 87.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidShanghai Sharks at 88%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Shanghai Sharksavg 87¢ | $303.44 | $306.93 | +$3.49 | 50% 10665-10792 (21457) |
JI jiafan<$100 | Shanghai Sharksavg 89¢ | $89 | $88 | -$0.5 | 60% 1391-922 (2313) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Shanghai Sharksavg 83.3¢ | $69.38 | $72.06 | +$2.67 | 60% 39473-26004 (65477) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 11.1¢ | $26.7 | $31.21 | +$4.51 | 50% 9301-9249 (18550) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | Shanghai Sharksavg 87¢ | $26.1 | $26.4 | +$0.3 | 69% 1609-728 (2337) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Shanghai Sharksavg 88¢ | $19.36 | $19.36 | +$0 | 57% 23972-18438 (42410) |
Invested
$303.44
Value
$306.93
PnL
+$3.49
Record
50%
10665-10792 (21457)
Invested
$89
Value
$88
PnL
-$0.5
Record
60%
1391-922 (2313)
Invested
$69.38
Value
$72.06
PnL
+$2.67
Record
60%
39473-26004 (65477)
Invested
$26.7
Value
$31.21
PnL
+$4.51
Record
50%
9301-9249 (18550)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$26.1
Value
$26.4
PnL
+$0.3
Record
69%
1609-728 (2337)
Invested
$19.36
Value
$19.36
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
23972-18438 (42410)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.