Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Tianjin Pioneers

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin (75%) · Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin at 77¢ · $220 held · ends Nov 1

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin77¢Tianjin Pioneers23¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Consensus Traders

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin 75%

Total Value

$220.03

Combined PnL

$6.29

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 77¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidShandong Hi-Speed Kirin at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin77%

Tianjin Pioneers23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin3 traders

Total Value$218.88

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$6.29

Tianjin Pioneers1 trader

Total Value$1.15

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin — 75%Tianjin Pioneers — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 77¢	$97.2	$97.2	-$0	54% 252-211 (463)
VeryLucky888	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 75.9¢	$155.46	$77.01	+$6.17	58% 31536-22821 (54357)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 76.8¢	$44.54	$44.66	+$0.12	54% 13750-11556 (25306)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Tianjin Pioneersavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.15	+$0	58% 1429-1045 (2474)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$97.2

Value

$97.2

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

252-211 (463)

VeryLucky888

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$155.46

Value

$77.01

PnL

+$6.17

Record

58%

31536-22821 (54357)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$44.54

Value

$44.66

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

13750-11556 (25306)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Tianjin Pioneers

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1429-1045 (2474)

Research grade

AvoidShandong Hi-Speed Kirin at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.