Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Beijing Ducks

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Beijing Ducks (86%) · Beijing Ducks at 77¢ · $854 held · ends Nov 3

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin24¢Beijing Ducks76¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Beijing Ducks

Consensus Traders

Beijing Ducks 86%

Total Value

$853.78

Combined PnL

$0.36

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 76.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Ducks at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Ducks

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin24%

Beijing Ducks77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Beijing Ducks6 traders

Total Value$813.98

Total Shares1,066

Combined PnL+$1.52

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin1 trader

Total Value$39.8

Total Shares166

Combined PnL-$1.16

Beijing Ducks — 86%Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Beijing Ducksavg 76.7¢	$592.93	$587.28	-$5.65	50% 2208-2217 (4425)
VeryLucky888<$100	Beijing Ducksavg 74¢	$73.98	$76.48	+$2.5	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Beijing Ducksavg 74.5¢	$53.22	$54.27	+$1.05	50% 10912-11060 (21972)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Beijing Ducksavg 76¢	$49.06	$51	+$1.94	47% 2260-2508 (4768)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinavg 24.7¢	$40.96	$39.8	-$1.16	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
poshposh<$100	Beijing Ducksavg 75¢	$31.88	$33.36	+$1.49	61% 8644-5579 (14223)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Beijing Ducksavg 74.7¢	$11.39	$11.59	+$0.2	60% 39862-26488 (66350)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$592.93

Value

$587.28

PnL

-$5.65

Record

50%

2208-2217 (4425)

VeryLucky888<$100

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$73.98

Value

$76.48

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

LuckyLoo<$100

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$53.22

Value

$54.27

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$49.06

Value

$51

PnL

+$1.94

Record

47%

2260-2508 (4768)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin

Invested

$40.96

Value

$39.8

PnL

-$1.16

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

poshposh<$100

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$31.88

Value

$33.36

PnL

+$1.49

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

UpTheBlues<$100

Beijing Ducks

Invested

$11.39

Value

$11.59

PnL

+$0.2

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

Research grade

AvoidBeijing Ducks at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Beijing Ducks

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Beijing Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.