Qingdao Eagles vs. Nanjing Monkey King: O/U 185.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$183.88
49.7¢ → 100¢
+101% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 49¢ | $735 | $885 | +$150 | 47% 1968-2204 (4172) |
BA Bagwell306 | Underavg 55¢ | $158.93 | $170.49 | +$11.56 | 67% 3160-1535 (4695) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 47¢ | $105.24 | $103.03 | +$22.04 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 51.3¢ | $68.97 | $64.24 | -$4.73 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51.3¢ | $50.11 | $40.05 | -$10.06 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46¢ | $18.86 | $24.19 | +$5.33 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 55.4¢ | $9.13 | $9.42 | +$0.29 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
Invested
$735
Value
$885
PnL
+$150
Record
47%
1968-2204 (4172)
Invested
$158.93
Value
$170.49
PnL
+$11.56
Record
67%
3160-1535 (4695)
VeryLucky888Invested
$105.24
Value
$103.03
PnL
+$22.04
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$68.97
Value
$64.24
PnL
-$4.73
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.13
Value
$9.42
PnL
+$0.29
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.